Decision Science: Deep Dive

Twenty modules exploring why we choose what we choose. From prospect theory to nudge design, every decision is a window into how the mind weighs risk, reward, and regret.

Foundations of Choice5 modules
01Available
What is Decision Science?
The interdisciplinary study of how people make choices, combining psychology, economics, neuroscience, and philosophy.
02Available
Rational Choice Theory
The classical model: people have complete information, consistent preferences, and maximize utility. Spoiler: this is almost never true.
03Available
Bounded Rationality
Herbert Simon's insight: we do not optimize, we satisfice. We make decisions that are 'good enough' given our limited time, information, and cognitive resources.
04Available
Prospect Theory
Kahneman and Tversky's Nobel-winning framework: people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, and losses loom larger than gains.
05Available
Expected Utility vs Expected Value
Why a 50% chance of $200 does not feel the same as a guaranteed $100. Risk preferences shape every decision.
Mental Mechanics5 modules
06Available
Choice Overload
More options can lead to decision paralysis, lower satisfaction, and more regret. The jam study: 24 jams attracted more attention but 6 jams sold more.
07Available
Loss Aversion
Losses feel approximately twice as painful as equivalent gains feel good. This explains insurance purchases, the endowment effect, and risk-averse behavior.
08Available
Temporal Discounting
We prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger future rewards. The marshmallow test, compound interest, and why saving for retirement is so hard.
09Available
Reference Dependence
Outcomes are evaluated relative to a reference point, not in absolute terms. A $50,000 salary feels great after $30,000 but terrible after $80,000.
10Available
The Endowment Effect
We value things we own more than identical things we do not own. Mug experiments show people demand roughly twice the price to sell a mug as they would pay to buy one.
Frameworks & Forces5 modules
11Available
Choice Architecture
The design of environments in which people make decisions. Small changes to how options are presented can dramatically shift outcomes.
12Available
Default Effects
The option that requires no action is disproportionately chosen. Organ donation rates vary from 4% to 99% based primarily on whether the form is opt-in or opt-out.
13Available
Decision Fatigue
The quality of decisions degrades after making many decisions. Judges grant parole at higher rates in the morning than late afternoon.
14Available
The Planning Fallacy
We systematically underestimate the time, cost, and risk of future actions while overestimating their benefits.
15Available
Regret Theory
We anticipate and try to avoid future regret, which distorts our current decisions. Fear of regret from action differs from fear of regret from inaction.
Applied Decision Science5 modules
16Available
Pre-Mortem Analysis
Before starting, imagine the project has failed spectacularly. Now list why. This surfaces risks that optimism bias would otherwise hide.
17Available
Decision Matrices
Structured frameworks for weighing multiple criteria. Pros and cons lists are intuitive but inadequate; weighted scoring reveals hidden priorities.
18Available
Probabilistic Thinking
Moving from 'yes or no' to 'how likely.' Calibrating your confidence, using base rates, and updating beliefs with new evidence.
19Available
Group Decision Making
How groups make better or worse decisions than individuals. Groupthink, wisdom of crowds, Delphi method, and structured dissent.
20Available
Building a Decision Practice
Creating personal systems for making better decisions. Decision journals, deliberation budgets, and choosing when to decide fast vs. slow.